Forecasting of instant coffee exports of India using transitional probability matrix
Author Affiliations
- 1Department of Agricultural Statistics, Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Uni. of Agricultural Sciences, Bengaluru, Karnataka, India
- 2Department of Agricultural Statistics, Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Uni. of Agricultural Sciences, Bengaluru, Karnataka, India
- 3Department of Agricultural Statistics, Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Uni. of Agricultural Sciences, Bengaluru, Karnataka, India
- 4Department of Agricultural Statistics, Bidhan Chandra KrishiViswavidyalaya, Mohanpur, Nadia, West Bengal, India
Res. J. Mathematical & Statistical Sci., Volume 7, Issue (2), Pages 13-20, May,12 (2019)
Abstract
Coffee exporting of India is of high importance in order to alleviate poverty. However, Indian coffee prices fluctuate very randomly as a large number of factors like production, quality, market demands etc. have immense influence over it. Consequently, involvement of considerable risk and uncertainty in statistical modelling as well as forecasting becomes unavoidable. Hence, in the current investigation, an attempt has been made to forecast the instant coffee exports of India using transitional probability matrix. The share of instant coffee export is forecasted to be highest to Russian Federation for all 3 years but compared to last year, export share has been decreased. The export shares to Turkey, Finland and Indonesia are expected to rise but India\'s share to Malaysia, Ukraine, U.S.A and other countries is expected to fall. Where in case of Poland one and two-step forecasting showing decrease in export share but third step forecasting had increased significantly. Though the quantity of coffee exported to different countries has increased over the years, India has to capture new markets to sustain as also to increase the total coffee export.
References
- Lyngso J., Host C., Hansen R., Bay B., Ingerslev H.J., Hulman A. and Kesmodel U.S. (2017)., Association between coffee or caffeine consumption and fecundity and fertility: a systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis., Clin. Epidemiol., 9, 699-719.
- Chu Y.F. (2014)., Coffee: Emerging Health Effects and Disease Prevention., John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York, USA, 21-29. ISBN: 978-0-470-95878-0
- Tejaswini P.B., Naik B.K., Kunnal L.B. and Basavaraj H. (2010)., Direction of Trade and Changing Pattern of Indian Coffee Exports - An Application of Markov Chain Analysis., Karnataka. J. Agric. Sci., 19(1), 71-75.
- Naveena K., Singh S., Rathod S. and Singh A. (2017)., Hybrid ARIMA-ANN Modelling for Forecasting the Price of Robusta Coffee in India., Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci., 6(7), 1721-1726.
- Mhaske V., Yeledhalli R.A., Choudhary K. and Chidanand P. (2011)., Direction of trade of major Indian agricultural commodities among SAARC countries., Agric. Update., 6(2), 17-20.
- Hosamani S.B., Hiremath G.M. and Kulkarni B.S. (2011)., Indian pomegranate export in the Pre WTO regime., J. ActaHortic., 89(1), 602-613.
- Adhikari A., Sekhon M.K. and Kaur M. (2016)., Export of rice from India: Performance and determinants., Agric. Econ. Res. Rev., 29(1), 135-150.
- Gunabhagya G. and lokesh G.B. (2016)., Growth performance and trade direction of Indian fish products., Econ. Aff., 61(1), 65-69.
- Ramanathan G., Mahendran K. and Sundaravaradarajan K.R. (2009)., Trade performance of cashew nut in India: a Markov-chain approach., Agric. Up., 4(3), 331-335.
- Reza S., Prakash S.S. and Achoth L. (2008)., Study of structural changes in trade directions of Pistachio from Iran., Mysore J. Agric. Sci., 42(3), 510-514.
- Hugar L.B. (2002)., Onion export markets and their stability for increasing India's exports: Markov Chain approach., J. Econ. Dev., 38(1), 1-9.
- Suseela K. and Prasad Y.E. (2003)., Export performance of turmeric-An Application of Markov Chain model., Andhra Agric. J., 50(2), 121-126.
- Mahadevaiah G.S., Ravi P.C. and Chengappa P.G. (2005)., Stability analysis of raw cotton export markets of India - Markov Chain Approach., Agric. Econ. Res. Rev., 18(2), 253-259.
- Vinod N.R. and Nethrayini K.R. (2018)., Changing direction and magnitude of India's coffee export in the post-liberalization era., HorticultInt J., 2(1), 1-7.