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Millet Production in India: Long-Term Trends, Regional Concentration and Productivity Dynamics (1975–76 to 2025–26)

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Author Affiliations

  • 1Department of Economics, Govt. College, Mahendergarh, Haryana, India
  • 2Department of Economics, Govt. College, Kanina (Mahendergarh), Haryana, India

Int. Res. J. Social Sci., Volume 15, Issue (4), Pages 8-20, October,14 (2026)

Abstract

Millets have played an important role in India’s nutritional security for a long time due to its climate-resilient and sustainable farming practices. The current environment, health and ecological understand has renewed our interest in the millets and coarse grains. The study is undertaken to understand the long term patterns in production of millets in India. This paper examines the production trends, regional distribution and productivity changes of four major millets in India - Jowar (Sorghum), Bajra (Pearl Millet), Ragi (Finger Millet), and Small Millets, The study is based on the state level cross-sectional data for Indian states for the period 1975–76 to 2025–26, data for which is taken from unified portal for agricultural statistics (UPAg). For the purpose of analysis, we computed CAGR, HHI, CV and CDVI. We decomposed the changes in production into ‘yield effect’, ‘area effect’ and ‘interaction effect’. We used β-convergence analysis to know whether gaps in productivity levels across different states are narrowing or widening. The data shows that for all the four millets studied, the area under cultivation was declining significantly but the yield (productivity) was increasing in all the millet crops under study. The decomposition analysis showed that the negative impact on production due to area effect was more than the positive impact due to yield effect in case of Jowar, Ragi, and Small Millets. This resulted in decline in the production for these three millet crops. Bajra was the crop where larger yield effect led to an increase in production. Ragi exhibited the highest geographical concentration, followed by Jowar and Bajra, whereas Small Millets showed comparatively low concentration. We found a significant inter-state difference in productivity in all the millet crops though convergence analysis showed that this gap has been narrowing. The results indicated that the policy thrust of the government should be two pronged, that is, expand the cultivated area under a particular crop and improve the productivity. Sufficient encouragement to the farmers must be given to achieve these both objectives.

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