Short Communication Linkage between Cyclonic storms, Geomagnetic storms, Sunspot numbers and Climate Change Joshi Indira Sudhir1 and Tadiparti Mary Christiana2 Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. HomiBhabha Road Pashan, Pune-411008, MH, INDIA 2Spicer Memorial College, Aundh, Pune, MH, INDIA Available online at: www.isca.in (Received 17th January 2012, revised 22nd January 2012, accepted 27th January 2012) Abstract Several studies have been made using geomagnetic activity as one of the parameters principally to determine its possible effects on meteorological parameters such as atmospheric circulation, pressure changes and atmospheric electricity, seismic activity. These studies led one to believe that geomagnetic activity affects the troposphere phenomena4 . In this paper a study has been undertaken to examine the relation between the geomagnetic storm activity, cyclonic storm activity, Sunspot numbers and climate Change. Key words: Sunspot numbers, cyclonic storms, climate change. Introduction Although industrial countries are responsible for the accumulation of greenhouse gas Emissions, the effects of global warming are most severe in the poorest countries. Climate change due to global warming is expected to influence crop and livestock production, Hydrologic balances, input supplies and other components of agricultural systems an atmosphere with higher CO2 concentration would result in higher Net photosynthetic rates higher concentrations may also reduce transpiration (i.e. water loss). Several studies have been made using geomagnetic activity as one of the parameters principally to determine its possible effects on meteorological parameters such as atmospheric circulation, pressure changes and atmospheric electricity, seismic activity1. These studies led one to believe that geomagnetic activity affects the troposphere phenomena 2, 3,4. Plausible climate change scenarios include higher temperatures, changes in precipitation and higher concentrations of atmospheric CO2 The extent to which the recent global warming has an anthropogenic origin (e.g. via the enhanced greenhouse effect) as opposed to a natural origin (e.g. through volcanic activity or solar variability) is of crucial importance for our understanding of how the Earth's climate has varied in the past and how it may vary in future5. Detailed fits of global and hemispherical temperatures since the mid-19th century with empirical models involving the enhanced greenhouse effect and solar variability require at least one parameter linked to solar activity for a satisfactory fit in the mid-20th century6,7. A study8 "once again about global warming and Solar activity", states that the index commonly used for quantifying long-term changes in solar activity, the sunspot number, accounts for only one part of solar activity and using this index leads to the underestimation of the role of solar activity in the global warming in the recent decades. A more suitable index is the geomagnetic activity which reflects all solar activity, and it is highly correlated to global temperature variations.9, states that "a doubling of the Sun's coronal magnetic field during the last 100 years", and "the magnetic flux in the solar corona has risen by 40% since 1964 and by a factor of 2.3 since 1901." Keeping the above in view a study has been undertaken in this paper to examine the linkage between cyclonic storms, geomagnetic storms and sunspot numbers. Data and Analysis: Data of geomagnetically disturbed days (AA index>60) from 1891-2011 are collected from the URL http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/Solar. Sunspot numbers data also collected from the above URL. Cyclonic storms with maximum wind speed over 47 knots formed in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian seas from 1891 to present are collected from the data published by India Meteorological Department(IMD).Decadal frequency distribution of geomagnetically disturbed days(AA index>60), cyclonic storms and Sunspot numbers during June-September are shown in table-1. Decadal frequency of geomagnetically disturbed days, cyclonic storms and Sunspot numbers during October -December are shown in table 2. Annual decadal frequency of geomagnetically disturbed days, cyclonic storms and Sunspot numbers are shown in table 3. Correlation coefficients between geomagnetic storms, cyclonic storms and Sunspot numbers are shown in table 4. Decadal frequency of Cyclonic storms, geomagnetic storms and sunspot numbers during October-December are shown in figure 1. Table-1 Decadal frequency of geomagnetic storms (AA index>60) Cyclonic storms (wind speed>47Knots) sunspot numbers during June-September S.no.YearAA indexCyclonic stormsSunspot numbers11891-190031774921901-191020553731911-192024554841921-193043764151931-194038845861941-195052927771951-196089709381961-197047766091971-1980497868101981-1990675284111991-2000763567122001-2010493342 Table-2 Decadal frequency of geomagnetic storms (AA index>60) Cyclonic storms (wind speed>47Knots) sunspot numbers during October-December S. No.YearAA indexCyclonic stormsSunspot numbers11891-190017114221901-19101194031911-19201973841921-193029124351931-19401495361941-19505777271951-19605199281961-197020225791971-1980331767101981-1990511684111991-2000491464122001-201027343 Table-3 Decadal frequency of geomagnetic storms (AA index>60) Cyclonic storms (wind speed>47Knots) and sunspot numbers S. No.YearAnnual AA indexAnnual Cyclonic stormsAnnual Sunspot numbers11891-1900861924521901-1910531663731911-1920721714141921-1930972294251931-1940932295561941-19501682317471951-19602251899381961-19701002556091971-198015825567101981-199020317182111991-200018614566122001-201011514041Table-4 Correlation Coefficients between decadal frequency of Geomagnetic storms, cyclonic storms and Sunspot numbers during 1891-2010 S. NoCorrelation Coefficient rJune- SeptemberOctober-DecemberAnnual1Correlation value between AA index and Severe Cyclones-0.21+0.1-0.22Correlation value between AA index and Sunspot numbers+0.42+0.8+0.93Correlation value between Severe cyclonic storms and Sunspot numbers+0.2+0.3+0.17 Figure-1 Decadal frequency of Cyclonic storms, geomagnetic storms and sunspot numbers during October-December Results and Discussion It is seen from tables 1, 2, 3 that frequency of cyclonic storms forming in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea in the last two decades reduced. The peak cyclonic activity, i.e. during October-December during 2001-2010 decreased. Also it is observed from tables 1, 2, 3 there is an increase in Geomagnetic storm activity from 1930 onwards. From table 4 it is inferred that only in the peak cyclonic activity season, i.e. during October-December an in phase relation between geomagnetic storms and severe cyclonic storms noticed (r = +0.1). Sunspot numbers and severe cyclonic storms are positively correlated, r = 0.35 (average of all seasons). An increase in geomagnetic storm activity associated with an increase in sunspot numbers activity r = + 0.76. Reduction in the use of non-renewable sources of energy and increased use of renewable sources will undoubtedly decrease the emission of GHGs substantially. This decrease in the GHGs will have a positive affect on the health and well being of the people. Furthermore, switching to cleaner fuels and energy-efficient technologies will reduce local pollutants and therefore, have an added beneficial impact on health. In this media has got the power to change any human being- whether literate or illiterate, rich or poor to educate and persuade about adopting and switching over to practices of using energy only from renewable sources10. Conclusion It is therefore, inferred from the above analysis that changes in Solar activity (Geomagnetic activity and Sunspot numbers) and GHGs strongly influenced the local Climate over the Indian Seas which in turn reduced the formation of cyclonic storms over the Indian Seas and decrease the rainfall activity over India. Acknowledgment The authors expresses their deep sense of gratitude to Dr. P.C.S. Devara, Head, PM and A Division and Director, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune for encouragement in preparing the manuscript and for providing all the facilities and infrastructure. References 1. 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Kelly P.M., Wigley T.M.L., Solar cycle length, greenhouse forcing and global climate, Nature, 360, 328-330 (1992) 7. Landsea C.W, Hurricanes and global warming, Nature, 438 (2005) 8. Georgieva, Bianchi and Kirov, Once again about global warming and solar activity, Memorie dell Socirta Astronomica Italiana, 76, 969 (2005b) 9. Lockwood, M., Stamper, R., and Wild, M.N., A doubling of the Sun's coronal magnetic field during the past 100 years Nature, 399, 437-439 (1999) 9. Bora Abhijit, Science communication through mass media, Res. J. Recent Sci., 1(1), 10-15 (2012) Research Journal of Chemical Sciences _______________________________________________________ ISSN 2231-606X Vol. 1(5), 1-7, Aug. (2011) Res.J.Chem.Sci. International Science Congress Association 3 Research Journal of Recent Sciences _________________________________________________ ISSN 2277-2502 Vol. 1(2), 100-103, Feb. (2012) Res.J.Recent Sci. International Science Congress Association 100 Research Journal of Recent Sciences ____________________________________________________________ ISSN 2277-2502 Vol. 1(2), 100-103, Feb. (2012) Res. J. Recent Sci. International Science Congress Association 101 Research Journal of Chemical Sciences________________________________________________ ISSN 2231-606X Vol. 1(5), 1-7, Aug. (2011) Res.J.Chem.Sci International Science Congress Association 5