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Global Warming: An Impact Assessment on Cyclonic Disturbances over Monsoon Asia

Author Affiliations

  • 1PG & Research, Dept. of Geography PG and Research Dept. of Geography, SPDM College, Shirpur, MS, INDIA
  • 2 SSVPS Science College, Dhule, MS, INDIA

Int. Res. J. Environment Sci., Volume 2, Issue (7), Pages 76-84, July,22 (2013)

Abstract

The monsoon region of Asia is a very distinctive part of the world with peculiar physiographic setting. It embraces the territories of the countries on the mainland from West Pakistan to Manchuria together with the arc of off-shore Island stretching from Shrilanka to Japan. It has defined the region primarily in terms of its climate which is its basic differentiating feature as Russell and Kniffen have said it include the maritime southern coasts of the continent, where monsoon influences either dominate climates or are rather strongly felt.A substantial achievement has been made in basic physical processes predictability and prediction since the MONEX of 1978-1979. For a country like India, where the economy of the country mainly depends on agriculture, the performance of monsoon both in space and time is very crucial and important providing regional climate, PRECIS is an atmospheric and land surface model of limited area and high resolution which can be configured for any part of the globe, pounding regional climate for impact studies a regional climate modeling system developed by Hadley center for climate prediction and research U.K is applied over the Indian domain to investigate the impact of global warming on the cyclonic disturbances such as depressions and storms. The Asian monsoon is characterized with a distinct seasonal reversal of wind and repaid alternation of dry and wet or rainy season in the annual cycle, which is concert with the seasonal reversal of the large-scale atmospheric heating and steady circulation features. The model simulation under the scenario of increasing greenhouse gas concentration and sulphate aerosols are analyzed to study the likely changes in the frequency intensity and tracks of cyclonic disturbances forming over Bay of Bengal, Arabian sea and the Indian landmass during monsoon season, the model overestimates the frequency of cyclonic disturbances over the Indian subcontinent in baseline simulations. The change is evaluated towards the end of present century with respect to the baseline climate. The present study indicates that the storm tracks simulated by model are southwards as compared to the observed tracks during the monsoon season especially for the two main monsoon months, viz. July and August. The analysis suggests that the frequency of cyclonic disturbances forming over north Indian Ocean is likely to reduce by 9% towards the end of the present century in response to the global warming. However the intensity of cyclonic disturbances is likely to increase by about 11% compared to the present.

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