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Prediction of mortality rate of under five year age of Pakistan

Author Affiliations

  • 1Department of Statistics, Government Degree College Chitral, Pakistan
  • 2Department of Economics, Government Degree College Chitral, Pakistan

Res. J. Mathematical & Statistical Sci., Volume 10, Issue (2), Pages 29-32, September,12 (2022)


Mortality rate is one of the important indicators of socio economic development of a country. The parameter derived from mortality provide a good picture of overall health status of population. It is mission of every country to save the lives of each and every person of the country. Now a day’s mortality rate of under five year age is also the big challenge for every country. Pakistan also facing such kind of problem since last 56 years. But the current pattern shows good picture of the future. So the main purposes of this study was that how many times will be required for Pakistan to fully control over such a problem. I mean to control mortality rate under five year (2016) 78.8 deaths per 1000 per live births to 1 death per 1000 live births. Therefore, secondary data for the period of eleven year from 2006 to 2016, have been carefully collected about the “Mortality rate of under five year age of Pakistan” from one of the international organization. In the initial step liner trend of under five year mortality rate have been used to roughly checked free hand curve. Then it showed that the data have in linear trend. So we have used the linear trend model for the prediction of under five year age of mortality rate. After the Statistical analysis we have come to the conclusion that in next 30 to 32 year Pakistan will control the problem of under five year age mortality rate.


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